2010 Election Impact on State Legislatures

2010 Election Impact on State Legislatures

From blogging post on The Hill    http://thehill.com/blogs

Republicans took control of at least 19 Democratic-controlled state legislatures Tuesday and gained more than 680 seats, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The last time Republicans saw such victories was in 1994, when they captured control of 20 state legislatures. Republicans haven't controlled as many state legislatures since 1928.  Across the country, the map for state legislatures has turned noticeably red as Republicans now control 55 chambers, with Democrats at 38 and the remaining yet to be decided. At the beginning of this week, Democrats controlled 60 of the country's state legislative chambers and Republicans 36.  

From American Thinker  www.americanthinker.com

Republicans now hold 3,735 state legislative seats to 3,119 state legislative seats held by Democrats, a stunning reversal of power from 2006 and 2008. Republicans have more seats in state legislatures than at any time since Reconstruction. These gains in state legislative seats led to a number of state legislative changes flipping from Democrat to Republican. In those 87 state legislative chambers contested on November 2, Republicans captured control from Democrats in at least nineteen chambers. In stark contrast, Democrats failed to gain a single state legislative chamber from Republicans.

For a map of the State legislatures and shift in balance of power to Republicans (red states), check out the National Conference of State Legislatures.  On their web site http://www.ncsl.org  click on Legislatures & Campaigns & State Vote.

This seismic shift in state legislatures from Democrat control to Republican control is the most significant in the last 70 years.

So how did it go in Colorado and New Mexico?   In New Mexico, under the leadership of House Minority leader Representative Tom Taylor (R-Farmington), the Republicans picked up 8 House seats to gain a total of 33 as compared to 37 Democrats.    Not a majority, but the GOP has a strengthened hand as the minority going forward with the new Republican Governor Susana Martinez.    The NM State Senate is not up for re-election until 2012, when their present 4 year terms expire.

On Colorado, the Republicans picked up enough seats to gain a single seat majority (33 to 32), with the new speaker of the House Frank McNulty (R-Highlands) and a split on the Joint Budget committee (3 Republicans and 3 Democrats) who will preside over recommending $1 Billion in cuts to a $19B budget for FY 2011/12.  The Colorado State Senate has 20 Democrats and 15 Republicans, with Ellen Roberts (R-Durango) being the single GOP pickup.

            Finally the most significant aspect of the shift in the balance of power in state legislatures in that the Republican majorities will oversee redistricting in states based on the 2010 census.    This will give the GOP an advantage at the state level (and presidential level) over the next 10 years.

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org

What a Difference an Election Day Makes

What a Difference an Election Day Makes


Election Day 2010 in the United States sent a message to Washington and respective state capitals: Enough! Stop the spending, repeal ObamaCare, create policies that encourage jobs and innovation. As US Senator Mitch McConnell said in a speech at the Heritage Foundation http://www.heritage.org ,

"So the voters didn’t suddenly fall in love with Republicans; they fell out of love with Democrats. And while they may have voted to send more Republicans to Washington, they’re sending them here with clear marching orders: stop the big-government freight train and respect the will of the people who sent you there." Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky

So what happened? As we know, the President is still determined to push through his progressive (i.e., left wing Democrat) agenda. Despite the overwhelming Republican wins in the US Congress (60+ seats picked up by GOP, including the majority), some Democrats are attributing the resounding defeat at the polls in November 2010 as failure to communicate the American people. Instead of recognizing the rejection of ill-fated and wrong-headed policies of the Democrats over the past two years that were rammed through by the Obama-Pelosi-Reid trifecta, the President and his allies just don’t get it. Americans are sick of the spending, the overreaching of their national government and creation of America in the image of socialized Europe.

With excellent insight and with the power of a strengthened hand (GOP controlled House, a stronger Republican minority in the US Senate, combined with a weakened President, Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) stated:

"But, as I see it, the White House has a choice: they can change course, or they can double down on a vision of government that the American people have roundly rejected. If they choose the former, they’ll find a partner in Republicans. If they don’t, we will have more disagreements ahead.
“The formula is simple, really: when the administration agrees with the American people, we will agree with the administration. When it disagrees with the American people, we won’t. This has been our posture from the beginning of this administration. And we intend to stick with it. If the administration wants cooperation, it will have to begin to move in our direction.
“There is no reason we can’t work together to prevent a tax hike on small businesses. There’s no reason we can’t work together on energy independence, cutting spending, or increasing American exports by completing free trade agreements. And we can continue to work together to give our armed forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and around the world whatever they need to accomplish their mission." Mitch McConnell

More info on the Republicans in the US Senate: http://republican.senate.gov/public

And for the policy wonks among us, the Heritage Foundation has suggested their Solutions for America http://www.heritage.org/Research/Projects/Solutions-for-America that summarizes the electoral mandate by the center/right American voters on November 2010.

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org

Congressional Cheat Sheet

Congressional Cheat Sheet

For those of you who are really into how these elections turn out, you may want to check out the final “cheat sheet” from Hot Air on the Congressional races.    http://hotair.com   Each Congressional race is ranked 1, 2, 3….through the 100’s as to how likely the seat will switch parties (from R to D, or D to R) in the 2010 election.   For example, John Salazar is ranked 43^rd most likely (out of 435) to loose his seat (switch from D to R).

The prediction from the political pundits and pollsters ranges from 40 to 70 seats that will switch from Democrat to Republican.   A net gain of 39 seats is needed by the Republicans to gain control of the “people’s house”.  

As for Colorado and New Mexico, here are likely “switch” ranking numbers.   The lower the number, the more likely the seat is to switch (the incumbent, in these two states the are Democrats) to the other party:

New Mexico:   NM-1:   Incumbent,  Martin Heinrich, D-NM 1^st   Rank=82

                        NM-2: Incumbent, Harry Teague, D-NM 2^nd  Rank=26

                        NM-3: Incumbent, Ben Lujan, Jr. D-NM 3^rd  Rank=117

Colorado:  Colorado 3: Incumbent, John Salazar, D-Colo 3^rd  Rank=43

                  Colorado 4: Incumbent, Betsy Markey, D-Colo 4^th  Rank=10

                  Colorado 7: Incumbent, Ed Perlmutter, D-Colo 7^th  Rank=96

And for those of you that would like a map to see the results, try this web site:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Enjoy the election outcomes!

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org  

Election Day 2010

Election Day 2010

In the United States, we still are able to vote on a regular basis as a self governed people.    Today, American across the country will finish voting for candidates seeking to serve the people at the local, state and Federal level.   In most states, early voting is allowed, which means the voting process has been going on for 2 to 3 weeks, with the final window to vote occurring today, Tuesday November 2^nd.

            In Colorado and New Mexico, there are competitive races up and down the ballot.   Some of the more interesting to watch:   The 3 way race for Governor of Colorado has the Democrat Mayor of Denver (Hickenlooper) trying to hold off a surging third party bid by a former Republican Congressman (Tancredo), while a the Republican nominee (newcomer Maes) has sunk to single digits in polling.  In northern New Mexico, a conservative Tea Party Republican (Tom Mullins) is challenging a well known Hispanic family dynasty (Lujan) for the 3^rd Congressional seat.  Scott Tipton is positioned to win his Republican bid for the 3^rd Congressional seat in Colorado, a likely upset win over incumbent Democrat John Salazar.

In Durango, long time conservative rancher JPaul Brown is running a decent campaign against newcomer Democrat and professional environmentalist (O’Donnell) for the 59^th state legislative seat.   And well respected state Representative Ellen Roberts is challenging the appointed state Senate Democrat Bruce Whitehead for the 6^th Senate District in southwestern Colorado.   Other races of note are La Plata County Commissioner, where my friend Bobby Lieb should out distance a Democrat and independent to win a seat on the Commission.  And in San Juan County, NM, the popular Margaret McDaniel is running a strong campaign for County Commissioner in an historically Navajo dominated district.   Her chances are better that 50-50% that she could win over the Democrat.

            The new governor of New Mexico is likely to be Susana  Martinez, a conservative Republican from southern New Mexico, who has run a successful campaign against the NM Democratic machine.    All three Congressional seats in New Mexico are competitive, with Republican pick-ups likely in 2 of the 3 races.

            At the national level,  the voters are fed up with big government, runaway spending and Obamacare.    Essentially, the Congressional races are a referendum on Obama, Pelosi and Ried and their Democrat policies that have not been working.   With the economy stuck in the mud due to poor public and tax policy, the voters are throwing the bums out and giving the Republicans another chance.    But with the volatile political climate of the past several years as a backdrop, whoever is governing better get it right, or they too will be voted out of office next time around.

            So today is your final day to vote.   Make it count!

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org   

The Best Political Writer

The Best Political Writer…Victor Davis Hanson

In this election season, and as a student of American (conservative) political thought, a must read on a regular basis are columns by Victor Davis Hanson.    Especially this week as he summarized the voter frustration with big government in the Washington and the Obama socialistic presidency.

His insight, wit and historical perspective (in terms of political history) are unique among the political writers of our day.

He is featured on Pajamas Media  http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson

Enjoy!

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org   

Ellen Roberts-6th Senate Colorado

The August primary is over, and the winner is Republican candidate Ellen Roberts (R-Durango), who has served as our GOP state Representative for the 59^th District.  We are fortunate to have a strong and experienced candidate like Ellen to running for the 6^th Senate District.    She is facing the “appointed official” Bruce Whitehead, a newcomer to the State Senate, who has not faced an election in his short political career.     While Ellen has successfully prevailed in 3 general elections and one contested Republican primary, Mr. Whitehead is facing the voters for the first time.

Some quick history about the 6^th Senate in Colorado: It is a geographically large and politically diverse.   The seat has been held by Republicans and Democrats.    From Telluride & Silverton (which vote 2 to 1 Democrat) to Montrose, Montezuma and Archuleta County (which vote Republican) and to Durango/La Plata County (which is now voting 60% Dem/40% Rep in 2008), it takes a well-rounded and hard working Republican nominee to win the 6^th District.    In my opinion, with our dedicated help, Ellen can win this race.

Our voter registration for the 6^th District, among “Active” voters:

30,589 Republican            23,124 Unaffiliated  (can’t vote ‘til General)        22,486 Democrat

So we have 77, 877 active voters, but it is likely only about 45,000 (or so) will vote.  In the 2006 Colorado 6th Senate race, about 50,000 people voted.

We’ll see Ellen on the campaign trail as she launches her General election campaign after a successful primary election, in which she prevailed with over 53.4% of votes cast by Republicans.   

Democrat Obey Bails Out of Congressional Re-Election Bid

Democrat Obey Bails Out of Congressional Re-Election Bid

As the 2010 Congressional elections come into view, a number of Democrats that serve in Congress are calling it quits.    The latest Democrat to call it quits, is the powerful chairman of the Appropriations Committee, David Obey, D-Wisconsin, 7^th District.   A member for 40 years, Mr. Obey was one of the biggest spenders in Washington, a political heritage that is more and more difficult to defend with voters back home.

Dateline-WASHINGTON, DC — Representative David R. Obey of Wisconsin, the third-most senior member of the House and chairman of the Appropriations Committee, announced Wednesday that he was retiring after four decades in Congress, a decision that reflected both a generational shift and the difficult political environment for Democrats.

        “I’m ready to turn the page,” said Mr. Obey, 71. He told lawmakers and reporters crammed into the committee room where he has held sway for so long that he was “bone tired,” before adding, “And frankly, I think that my district is ready for somebody new, to make a fresh start.”

    Mr. Obey, an occasionally cantankerous figure and die-hard liberal who spearheaded last year’s economic stimulus legislation, was facing a competitive election in his sprawling district, with Republicans trying to show they could threaten senior Democrats.     Source:  http://newsgoogle.com

So were does this story of Obey retiring fit into the mix of overall retirements in Congress?     He is one of 17 Democrat members, along with 20 Republican members who are not running for the House of Representatives in 2010.

The surprise retirement of Wisconsin Rep. Dave Obey on Wednesday brought the number of Democratic retirements to 17 -- short of the 20 Republicans leaving or running for other offices but still perilously close to the danger zone for Democrats in the 2010 midterms.

By political handicapper Charlie Cook's projections, 13 of the 17 open Democratic seats are marginal -- meaning that they are likely to be competitive between the two parties. There are fewer competitive districts among the 20 Republican retirements with both national House committees likely to spend campaign cash in four or five of the GOP seats.    Washington Post, Fix political blog   http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix   

So as the 2010 Election approaches,  37 members of Congress (17 Democrat and 20 Republicans) are stepping aside, rather that facing voters in November.   Clearly the anti-incumbent and anti-Washington mood among voters is creating a difficult reelection environment for members of Congress.   

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org