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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Skewing the Presidential Polls

Have you ever wondered about the Presidential polls?   How they are determined and what do the numbers really mean?  And what "secret sauce" do they use for likely voters, turnout, and independent voter trends?  In the 2012 Presidential race and polling the narrative (interpretation of the polls by MSM) is that the Presidential sweepstakes has been tied, with Obama now pulling away.   But there is a problem with this pro-Obama story line that is being parroted by the Main Stream Media (MSM).   Here is an article on how polls can be skewed:

Here is a polling web site that is adjusting for "likely voters" vs. registered voters.   The website Unskewed is using different voting trend models, including the higher number of registered Republicans in 2012 vs. 2008 and the historical trends suggesting that independents are breaking towards a more conservative vote:

And here is the backgrounder on Scott Rasmussen from Rasmussen reports, who has been the most accurate pollster in the past 10 years, including the first to predict that Scott Brown (R-Massachusettes) could upset the Democrat in the recent US Senate race.

So, who are you going to believe?    I'd go with the actual voters this November.   But in the meantime, I'd watch Rasmussen and Unskewed out of the corner of my eye, in spite of the steady drumbeat by the MSM that polls are showing Obama more favorably (due to their Democrat skew).

(c) 2012, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media,  

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Obama: Incomplete Answer

Paul Ryan Answers the Questions

As the Main Stream Media (MSM) goes after the Romney-Ryan GOP ticket in the final 2 months of the Presidential campaign - some challenging questions are being asked.   If you search for Paul Ryan speeches, you'll find a fresh approach to answering questions from the media.   Mr. Ryan actually answers questions.    This compares to the Obama approach of dodge the question, change the subject and then blame others for the present problems.  Thus week the question "du jour" has been the famous line from the presidential debate between "one-term President Jimmy Carter" and the challenger, Governor Ronald Reagan:  "Are you better off now than four years ago?".   The Governor of Maryland said "No" earlier this week, until the Democrat party operatives called and told him to "change the answer", which he has dutifully been trying to do since giving his original honest answer.  But the bet answer was from President Obama, who was asked in Colorado Springs to grade his performance with the US economy and responded "incomplete".   Really?

Here is how Paul Ryan responded to the tough round of questions from the CBS news team (who are in Charlotte, NC at the Democrat convention).

Only an academic or silver tongued lawyer would answer the "Are you better off" question as Barak Obama did: "incomplete".    So he dodged the question, attempted to change the subject, and then (as he has been prone to do) blamed others for the poor economy.

The transcript of Obama's "incomplete" grade that he gave himself on the economy:

Dianne Derby: Your party says you inherited a bad situation. You've had three and a half years to fix it. What grade would you give yourself so far for doing that?

President Obama: You know I would say incomplete...but what I would say is the steps that we have taken in saving the auto industry, in making sure that college is more affordable andinvesting in clean energy and science and technology and research, those are all the things that we are going to need to grow over the long term.

So after 3 1/2 years on the job, and the Presidents's policies are not working, he gives himself a grade of "incomplete"?    Looks like it is time to elect a new President!