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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Re-Election & Realism

    A divided country politically, with changing demographics and $6 Billion in election spending, results in both a re-election of marginally popular President and a divided US Congress.    For the GOP challenger Mitt Romney, too many items in his campaign didn't add up.  Mr. Romney ran a noble and spirited campaign, but the Democrat and "willing media" smear job proved to be defining.   A good man trashed for the purpose of re-election of the post-modern guy from Chicago.  However, it must be said that the GOP muddled the message of limited government, fiscal responsibility and personal responsibility.  Thus, the final Presidential result favored the better candidate and organization.

     For the incumbent President, the Obama machine used technology, a well organized ground game, a complicent media funded by $1 Billion in campaign monies, to roll up victories in a majority of the swing states (including Florida, Ohio and Virginia).  So congratulations to President Obama!  As a member of the loyal opposition, I'm impressed with the Obama victories across the swing states.   However, I'm deeply disappointed in the negative Democrat campaign tactics, the Mainstream News Media (MSM) and the fact that our Republican party tripped and stumbled on our own accord.
    So now what?    The GOP majority in the US House of Representatives, lead by Speaker Boehner is the only elected body standing in the way of re-elected President.     Of the three leaders (Leader Reid, President Obama, Speaker Boehner), the best and most skilled negotiator is Speaker Boehner.   The meanest of the three, is Leader Reid, who is willing to bend, avoid and skirt US Senate rules for the Majority purpose, if he can.  And the least experienced in governing and negotiating is the President.   Sure, he is an excellent campaigner and has run two successful Presidential campaigns.   This is no small feat.    The problem is in the President's limited ability to govern with a bipartisan approach.    
    But there are two other factors, with will impact our future politics in America.    One is the fact that 2/3 of the states will be governed by Republican elected executives.  These are popular and conservative reformers who are leading the experiments in US democracy at the state level.  And for some period of time, the US Supreme Court is split with both a liberal and conservative wing, that can still backstop the US Constitution to some extent.  The Obamacare 5-4 favorable ruling, although soundly criticized by conservatives (as for they Ok'd individual mandate), also included a "states right" ruling that the Federal government could not use withholding of Medicare dollars as leverage on the states who choose not to be forced to fund Obamacare with Medicare.   
    The biggest factor is that the President and his Democrat supporters now own it.   The weak economy, wobbly health care, and foreign unrest are the Democrats problem to solve.   No longer can a former President (Bush) be blamed, GOP presidential candidates made fun of, nor can blaming others for weak economic situations in the US.  They'll have to work with the loyal opposition to resolve the problems that both own and will be expected to have viable solutions for.  
Immediate budget challenges and "fiscal cliff" impacts will require bi-partisan leadership to resolve.    The President and his leadership abilities will be exposed as what they really are.   The slash and burn negative campaigning, the pandering to special interest groups, the funding of cronies and ideologues that have proven effective in Presidential campaigning...will simply not work in spirited bi-partisan negotiations.    For example, when the Democrats controlled the US House in 2009 and cooperated with the President and the US Senate in "cramming down" Obamacare without any Republican support, little did the Democrat leadership ever dream that when it came time for implementation of Obamacare in 2013 and 2014, the Boehner lead Republicans would be in charge.  Oops!  
   There is much more to discuss, but this post-election review will get us started.

(c) 2012, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media,    

Monday, October 8, 2012

Romney Schools Obama

Romney Schools Obama

It was time to call the debate for Romney before it was halfway done.  A weak President and poorly prepared Barack Obama was unable to hold his own with challenger Mitt Romney in their first debate.  For the first time in four years, the President was actually challenged and called on the carpet for his failed policies and inept attempts to explain away Obama-ville.  The Main Stream Media (MSM) pass and Obama’s fear to give and take press conferences created the White House cocoon effect.  Simply put, the President wasn’t ready for a prime time debate with a worth opponent. So exactly what happened in the first of three Presidential debates?

            Barack Obama was faced with five factors that he either underestimated or misunderstood.   First, there we no teleprompters to convey the answers or script to the President.   He actually had to think and respond for himself.   And he struggled with his responses.  Secondly, there were no friendly members of the press to lob softball questions or cover for his weak answers.    This wasn’t The View, where Obama characterized himself as “eye candy”.    This was live fire; with Jim Lehrer delivering questions and follow up with true journalistic rigor.  Thirdly, the President was not prepared for spirited debate and was unable to defend his failed policies.    When he tried for the third time to pin a $5 trillion dollar “supposed” tax cut on Mitt Romney, the GOP challenger restated that the Obama spin was simply not true.  The fourth factor was that the President was unable to “walk out of the press conference” when the heat was turned up with the hard questions from the moderator.   He had to stay at the podium during the Presidential debate for a long hour and a half.   Finally, the President had to face reality, as compared to the mythical life and “media created” narrative that he has lived for the past four years.   Your actions and decisions as President do matter.   The US economy really isn’t firing on all cylinders.    Truth is brighter than lies.  And Barack Obama was exposed by the reality of prepared opponent in Mitt Romney that didn’t back down. 

            Meanwhile, Mitt Romney came to the first debate well prepared.    And he well schooled in the policy debate that is before the America people.   He laid out his 5-point plan with clarity.   He challenged the President on every point, indicating his approach that is more citizen and private sector driven.    He was able to pin “trickle down government” on the President, whose every answer involved the government spending more money (investments) or paying more of our fair share (raising taxes).   When the President tried the “big oil” tax break spin, Romney fired back with Obama’s history of committing multiple millions of US government monies spent on “green companies” that have failed in the marketplace.  When the President tried to classify Donald Trump as a small business person, Romney correctly explained what raising taxes on the “rich” actually negatively impacts many small business owners as well.  A weak President attempting to use campaign and class warfare rhetoric was exposed.  Mr. Romney was direct, concise and well organized in his responses to questions and he successfully challenged the President.   He looked the audience and the President in the eye.   All that Obama could do was shuffle his feet, look down at his notes, and wish that the debate was over.  

            Many commentaries have been written about the first debate, and it is clear that this was one of Romney’s finest moments in contrast with a fading Barack Obama.  The Democrat spin machine struggled for traction, as Al Gore blamed the poor debate performance the “altitude” in Denver.  Really?   What would have happened if the debate was in Aspen, Colorado?  Or Telluride, CO?  The president would have passed out!  The New York Times (never a fan of someone from Chicago, as compared to Hillary Clinton who hails as the Senator from New York) is running the “empty podium and chair” cartoon on their front cover.  It shows Romney debating the empty chair, or empty suit as some have indicated.  Essentially, Romney schooled Obama in the first debate.

            Well-known conservative columnist Victor Davis Hansen summarized the debate this way:    Debate number two is fast approaching.    Romney will be well prepared.   Who knows if Obama will show up?

© 2012, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Skewing the Presidential Polls

Have you ever wondered about the Presidential polls?   How they are determined and what do the numbers really mean?  And what "secret sauce" do they use for likely voters, turnout, and independent voter trends?  In the 2012 Presidential race and polling the narrative (interpretation of the polls by MSM) is that the Presidential sweepstakes has been tied, with Obama now pulling away.   But there is a problem with this pro-Obama story line that is being parroted by the Main Stream Media (MSM).   Here is an article on how polls can be skewed:

Here is a polling web site that is adjusting for "likely voters" vs. registered voters.   The website Unskewed is using different voting trend models, including the higher number of registered Republicans in 2012 vs. 2008 and the historical trends suggesting that independents are breaking towards a more conservative vote:

And here is the backgrounder on Scott Rasmussen from Rasmussen reports, who has been the most accurate pollster in the past 10 years, including the first to predict that Scott Brown (R-Massachusettes) could upset the Democrat in the recent US Senate race.

So, who are you going to believe?    I'd go with the actual voters this November.   But in the meantime, I'd watch Rasmussen and Unskewed out of the corner of my eye, in spite of the steady drumbeat by the MSM that polls are showing Obama more favorably (due to their Democrat skew).

(c) 2012, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media,  

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Obama: Incomplete Answer

Paul Ryan Answers the Questions

As the Main Stream Media (MSM) goes after the Romney-Ryan GOP ticket in the final 2 months of the Presidential campaign - some challenging questions are being asked.   If you search for Paul Ryan speeches, you'll find a fresh approach to answering questions from the media.   Mr. Ryan actually answers questions.    This compares to the Obama approach of dodge the question, change the subject and then blame others for the present problems.  Thus week the question "du jour" has been the famous line from the presidential debate between "one-term President Jimmy Carter" and the challenger, Governor Ronald Reagan:  "Are you better off now than four years ago?".   The Governor of Maryland said "No" earlier this week, until the Democrat party operatives called and told him to "change the answer", which he has dutifully been trying to do since giving his original honest answer.  But the bet answer was from President Obama, who was asked in Colorado Springs to grade his performance with the US economy and responded "incomplete".   Really?

Here is how Paul Ryan responded to the tough round of questions from the CBS news team (who are in Charlotte, NC at the Democrat convention).

Only an academic or silver tongued lawyer would answer the "Are you better off" question as Barak Obama did: "incomplete".    So he dodged the question, attempted to change the subject, and then (as he has been prone to do) blamed others for the poor economy.

The transcript of Obama's "incomplete" grade that he gave himself on the economy:

Dianne Derby: Your party says you inherited a bad situation. You've had three and a half years to fix it. What grade would you give yourself so far for doing that?

President Obama: You know I would say incomplete...but what I would say is the steps that we have taken in saving the auto industry, in making sure that college is more affordable andinvesting in clean energy and science and technology and research, those are all the things that we are going to need to grow over the long term.

So after 3 1/2 years on the job, and the Presidents's policies are not working, he gives himself a grade of "incomplete"?    Looks like it is time to elect a new President!

Monday, August 13, 2012

Sharpening the Pencils & the Debate (VP Ryan)

The selection of Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan as the Vice Presidential candidate by GOP nominee Mitt Romney changes the Presidential campaign.  While the VP nominee is rarely is a game changer in an election for President, this time around may be different.    To date, the Presidential race has lacked the real debate on the issues facing America:  the US economy, lack of jobs (8%+ unemployment), entitlement reform, limited government and the role of the private sector.    And the campaign debate has failed to address the signature legislative "cram down" by the Obama administration and the government-minded Democrats:  the proposed repeal of ObamaCare by a Mitt Romney administration.
     As the VP candidate, Ryan adds intellectual acumen, budget expertise, youth and the ability to carry the conservative message without apology.   Take the time to pull up some YouTube video clips of Mr. Ryan in action.   Or watch the time that Representative Ryan sliced and diced ObamaCare in his exchange with the President at the joint legislative & executive branch meeting at the White House.   Obama was unable to counter or respond.
     As the Republican Presidential candidate, Romney has changed the subject to the real issues and the "boys from Chicago" will be unable to keep changing the subject away from the obvious.   This President and his liberal expanding of the federal government has failed the American people.   The debate about the true future of limited government vs. unlimited government for the United States now begins in earnest.

(c) 2012, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media,

Sunday, July 1, 2012

John Stossel: ObamaCare Speech Decoded

John Stossel, commentator and news anchor with Fox Business News, gives us a point-by-point translation (decoding) of the President's hollow victory speech on Obamacare ruling by the US Supreme Court.  Obama-speak and the truth about ObamaCare continue to diverge.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Obama-nomics simply don't work!

A recent Investors Business Daily highlights the failures of Obama-nomics.    The lack of economic results due to the lack of Presidential leadership and poorly conceived policies is proven out in the economic metrics:

The Obama Record: May's weak jobs report further confirms the president's policies are failing to help the economy. This is, indeed, the worst recovery since the Depression.
Negative superlatives associated with this presidency keep piling up. The toll so far:

• The share of Americans who've been out of work a long time — now at 42% of the unemployed — is the highest since the Great Depression (source: Labor Department).
• The proportion of the civilian working-age population actually working, at 58%, is the smallest since the Carter era (Labor Department).
• Growth in nonfarm payroll jobs since the recovery began in June 2009 is the slowest of any comparable recovery since World War II (Hoover Institution).
• The rate of new business startups — the engine of job growth — has plunged to an all-time low of 7.87% of all businesses (Census Bureau).
• 3 in 10 young adults can't find jobs and live with their parents, highest since the 1950s (Pew Research).

For complete Business Investors Daily website coverage:

• 54% of bachelor's degree-holders under the age of 25 are jobless or underemployed, the highest share in decades (Northeastern University).
• Black teen unemployment, now at 37%, is near Depression-era highs (Labor Department).
• Almost 1 in 6 Americans are now poor — the highest ratio in 30 years — and the total number of poor, at 49.1 million, is the largest on record (Census).
• The share of Hispanics in poverty has topped that of blacks for the first time, 28.2% to 25.4% (Census).
• The number of Americans on food stamps — 45 million recipients, or 1 in 7 residents — also is the highest on record (Congressional Budget Office).
• Total government dependency — defined as the share of Americans receiving one or more federal benefit payments — is now at 47%, highest ever (Hoover).
• The share of Americans paying no income tax, at 49.5%, is the highest ever (Heritage Foundation, IRS).
• The national homeownership rate, now at 65.4%, is the lowest in 15 years (Census).
• The 30-point gap between black and white Americans who own their own homes is the widest in two decades and one of the widest on record (Census).
• Federal spending, now at 23.4% of GDP, is the highest since WWII (CBO).
• Excluding defense and interest payments, spending is the highest in American history, at 17.6% of the economy (First Trust Economics).
• The federal debt, at 69% of GDP, is the highest since just after WWII (CBO).
• The U.S. budget deficit, now at 9.5% of the economy, is the highest since WWII (CBO).
• U.S. Treasury debt has been downgraded for the first time in history, meaning the U.S. government no longer ranks among risk-free borrowers (S&P).
This is what Obamanomics has wrought. Fiscal promiscuity. Trickle-up poverty. Shared misery.

Source:  Investors Business Daily