Colorado Guv Opts Out

Colorado Guv Opts Out

First term Democrat Governor Bill Ritter surprises supports and his Republican challenger Scott McInnis on Wednesday January 6^th with this announcement:

Gov. Bill Ritter announced today he will not seek re-election this November

to a second term.   

While many pundits, politicians, opponents and journalists have offers reasons why the Governor is not running in 2010, Governor Bill Ritter’s formal reason (as per his office’s press release) is as follows:

It is my family who has sacrificed the most, my wife, Jeannie, my kids, three of whom are here today. I have not found the proper balance where myfamily is concerned, and I have not made them the priority they should be.So today I'm announcing that I'm ending one of my roles. I am no longer a candidate for re-election this November.

As a recovering elected official on a 12-step plan (who served two 4 year terms on the local Durango City Council), and was involved in a 1998 state of Colorado legislative campaign, I can personally attest to the challenges of balancing political and public service with a normal family life.    

However, a number of political factors may have been in play, that weren’t mentioned in the Governor’s official press release and statement to the media.   According to the Rasmussen Reports, December 2009 polling data showed that the incumbent Democrat Governor was trailing leading Republican challenger Scott McInnis by 8%.   In additon, the GOP candidate McInnis has positive favorable vs. unfavorable ratings and leads by 7% points among the critical unaffiliated Colorado voter.

Like many Democrats nationwide these days, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter who was easily elected in 2006 finds himself trailing his chief Republican opponent in a potential 2010 match-up. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows former GOP Congressman Scott McInnis ahead of Ritter 48% to 40%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. 

Voters not affiliated with either party prefer McInnis to Ritter by a 46% to 39% margin.

Seventeen percent (17%) of Colorado voters have a very favorable view of the current governor, but 27% regard him very unfavorably.  McInnis is seen very favorably by 17% and very unfavorably by 12%.   http://www.rasmussenreports.com 

In addition, Colorado has struggled economically under the Ritter administration, and while the US economy has been weak, the public has not perceived the Democrat Governor as the leader of an economy recovery in the state.   

It has been said political considerations supercede all other considerations.    In case of Governor Ritter, with re-election prospects slipping and polling number weakening, the political reality overcame the official reasons for not running in 2010.

© Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org    

Josh Penry To Bow Out of Colorado Guv Race

Breaking news and press reports on Monday 11/9/09 indicate that State Senator Josh Penry will announce his withdrawal from the Colorado Governor race in 2010 as a GOP candidate leaving former Congressman Scott McInnis as the front runner to challenge Democrat Bill Ritter.

The Washington Post (political blog by Chris Cillizza) reported on Monday November 9^th that Penry would announce his intentions to withdraw this week:

CO-Gov: Penry to exit race  (from WP blog by Chris Cillizza)

“Colorado state Sen. Josh Penry (R) plans to end his gubernatorial campaign and endorse former Rep. Scott McInnis (R), according to two sources familiar with his thinking.

Penry's decision to opt out of the race is a stunner as many national Republicans had touted him as a potential rising star (and we had featured him in our "Rising" series that looks at up and coming politicians).

Political chatter in the immediate aftermath of Penry's decision suggested he might be considering a run against 3rd district Rep. John Salazar (D) who won the Western Slope seat when McInnis retired in 2004. Salazar's seat is one of 49 held by Democrats that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried in 2008. (McCain won it 50 percent to 48 percent for President Barack Obama.) But, Republicans already have a candidate -- state Rep. Scott Tipton -- they are high on in the race.

Sources close to Penry suggested that he was heavily influenced by the victories for Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia last week -- wins due, at least in part, to the lack of competitive primaries on the Republican side.

Penry was worried that a bruising August primary would potentially compromise the eventual nominee's chances of beating Ritter. Combine that with his youth (he is 33) and his role as state Senate Minority Leader and Penry decided that dropping out of the race was the best option for him and the party.”

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/co-gov-penry-to-exit-race.html?wprss=thefix

By Monday evening, GOP Candidate Dan Maes had sent out an e-mail of the Penry exit from the race.    Club 20 www.club20.org had chimed in on e-mail and several other Colorado news outlets carried the impending announcement by Penry.

This will shift the competition for the 3^rd Congressional District race, as newcomer Bob McDonnell (former US Army Ranger) is already challenging Democrat John Salazar, with reports that State Representative Scott Tipton and possible State Senator Josh Penry about to throw their hats into the GOP ring as candidates for the 3^rd CD in Colorado.  Mr. Tipton was elected to the 58^th state representative District (Montrose, Cortez) in 2008, and he was previously the GOP nominee for the 3^rd CD in 2006 (but lost to Salazar).  

The recent mid term elections (November 2009) have emboldened GOP challengers across the Rocky Mountain West, and Colorado is no exception.

© 2009, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org   

US Senate Race in Colorado Grows

Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Colorado is a lot more crowded this week, and incumbent Michael Bennet has some serious competition on hand. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters finds Bennet trailing former Republican Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton 45% to 36%. Norton formally announced her candidacy on Tuesday. In that contest, seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. Another newcomer, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, is expected to announce his candidacy today (Wednesday), challenging Bennet for the Democratic Senate nomination next year. In a match-up with Norton, the highest profile Republican in the race so far, Romanoff is down by eight points – 42% to 34%. From Rasmussen Reports, Wednesday September 16, 2009 http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Editor’s note: At the recent Club 20 fall meetings in Grand Junction, www.club20.org the Democratic Governor (Bill Ritter) and appointed US Senator (Michael Bennet) were in attendence, along with a number of other elected and appointed officials. And many announced candidates for Governor, Congress and the US Senate were prowling the halls of the Club 20 meeting (and Friday BBQ) for support, including former Congressman Scott McInnis. www.scottmcinnisforgovernor.com Scott is facing a GOP primary with Colorado State Senator Josh Penry and newcomer Dan Maes www.danmaes.com

© 2009, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media www.jasperwelch.org

Early Polls on Colorado US Senate & Governor Races

Early Polls on Colorado US Senate & Governor Races

Some of the best polling in the US can be found at the Rasmussen Reports web site.   Here is the recent September 10^th (2009) release of statewide Colorado 2010 races for US Senate (Dem appointee Bennett as incumbent http://bennet.senate.gov  ) and Governor (Bill Ritter facing a strong challenge from former US Congressman Scott McInnis).

“Colorado’s appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennett finds himself in a toss-up with two potential Republican challengers, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Bennett ahead of Buck 43% to 37%. With Frazier as the opponent, Bennet is essentially even. The numbers are 40% for Frazier and 39% for the incumbent.

Any incumbent who polls less than 50% is considered potentially vulnerable.”  www.rasmussenreports.com   Thurs Sept 10, 2009

Editor’s note: A number of other GOP candidates are running for US Senate, including State Senator Tom Wiens www.tomwiens2010.com     In addition, former Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff has announced his challenge to US Senator Bennett.    Info on Romanoff at this My Space page: www.myspace.com/romanoffforsenate  

“The incumbent Democrat Governor Bill Ritter trounced his Republican opponent to win Colorado’s governorship in 2006, but now in a state that has been trending Democratic and even hosted the party’s national convention last year, the incumbent Democrat may be facing problems in his 2010 reelection bid.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado finds Ritter trailing Republican challenger Scott McInnis by five points – 44% to 39% - in an early look at next year’s race for governor.
Ritter’s in a virtual tie with another GOP challenger, state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. Ritter picks up 41% of the vote to Penry’s 40%.”

www.rasmussenreports.com   Thursday Sept 10, 2009

What we are seeing in Colorado is shaping up as competitive (both on the Dems and GOP sides) for the US Senate and Governor races in 2010.   While Colorado has been historically a center right (or purple state), recent gains by Democrats have place Colorado in the blue state column (with Democrat majority in House, Senator and Governors’ office in Democrat hands).    Now that Colorado voters have seen one party rule (from the blue state Democrat way of governing), they are having second thoughts as taxes and fees increase and the Colorado economy struggles.   

© 2009, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media   www.jasperwelch.org