Four Corners Media: Rasmussen Reports

Showing posts with label Rasmussen Reports. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Skewing the Presidential Polls

Have you ever wondered about the Presidential polls? How they are determined and what do the numbers really mean? And what "secret sauce" do they use for likely voters, turnout, and independent voter trends? In the 2012 Presidential race and polling the narrative (interpretation of the polls by MSM) is that the Presidential sweepstakes has been tied, with Obama now pulling away. But there is a problem with this pro-Obama story line that is being parroted by the Main Stream Media (MSM). Here is an article on how polls can be skewed:

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama

Here is a polling web site that is adjusting for "likely voters" vs. registered voters. The website Unskewed is using different voting trend models, including the higher number of registered Republicans in 2012 vs. 2008 and the historical trends suggesting that independents are breaking towards a more conservative vote:

http://unskewedpolls.com/

And here is the backgrounder on Scott Rasmussen from Rasmussen reports, who has been the most accurate pollster in the past 10 years, including the first to predict that Scott Brown (R-Massachusettes) could upset the Democrat in the recent US Senate race.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

So, who are you going to believe? I'd go with the actual voters this November. But in the meantime, I'd watch Rasmussen and Unskewed out of the corner of my eye, in spite of the steady drumbeat by the MSM that polls are showing Obama more favorably (due to their Democrat skew).

(c) 2012, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Whipping Reluctant Democrats into Shape

Whipping reluctant Democrats into shape:

The pressure is on Speaker Pelosi to whip the Democrats into shape. Meanwhile, the American voter is getting more upset by the day, as they think there voices are not being heard. So what is going on?

Typically when the “whipping” starts on a major bill congressional insiders say, “The candy store is open.” For wavering Democrats, that means requesting changes in the legislation in exchange for their support – make this modification, add this or that and I’ll support it. Bargaining like this goes on routinely behind the scenes. It’s all part of making the great legislative hot dog

The health care bill includes another strange procedural twist. Democratic leaders in Congress decided to first bring up the legislation the Senate passed in December for a vote in the House. If it passes, the bill could go directly to the president for his signature. Democrats are promising wavering House members they will make changes to the bill in a subsequent piece of legislation that will be considered as part of the budget reconciliation process (which requires a simple majority to pass in the Senate). But it’s unclear when, or even if, this will happen. As one veteran member of Congress used to say, “Fixing a bill in the Senate is the political equivalent of promising ‘I’ll respect you in the morning.’” www.weeklystandard.com

Both parties in Congress elect their respective “whips.” In the House, Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina holds the position for the Democrats and Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia for the GOP. The position has been formally part of the congressional leadership since around the end of the nineteenth century. But because health care is the big enchilada, this one lands on Pelosi’s plate. “She’s the real Democratic whip on this one,” a House Republican leadership aide told me.

The fate of the legislation lies in the accuracy and persuasiveness of the Democratic vote counters. Yet the process is largely unknown to the world outside of congressional insiders. The Weekly Standard, political blog March 2010

And if the Democrats are whipped into shape, with many casting a vote that may end up sealing their fate in November of 2010 (and unelectable members of Congress, due to going against the will of their constituents)?

But the rub is that even if ObamaCare passes, Democrats and President Obama will lose. Republicans have already vowed to make November a referendum on this bill and, by all auguries, Democrats are going to lose big time. The loss of one election if the larger cause succeeds wouldn't be a big deal. But this bill has little legitimacy and for years might be tied up in constitutional challenges against its individual mandate provision--not to mention the provisions that turn insurance companies into public utilities without due process. ObamaCare could well become President Obama's Iraq. Worst of all from the standpoint of his personal life story, it will exacerbate the crisis of the entitlement state, requiring someone else to step forward and clean up the fiscal mess he is creating. Shikha Dalmia, writing in Forbes Magazine

Shikha Dalmia is a senior analyst at Reason Foundation and a biweekly Forbes columnist. www.forbes.com

So as Speaker Pelosi trys to whip her Democrat majority in Congress into line, many members of Congress are listening to their voters back home and realizing that a vote for the monstrous health care bill is political suicide.

The recent www.rasmussenreports.com Rasmussen polling shows why the Health Care bill is in big trouble, and why wavering members of Congress have a voter support problem (especially Democrats who vote for the bill):

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters believe passage of the proposed health care legislation will lead to higher health care costs. Just 17% believe it will achieve the stated goal of reducing the cost of care.

Forty-nine percent (49%) also think passage of the plan will reduce the quality of care, while only 23% believe it will improve the quality of care. 3.08.10 Rasmussen Reports

And while the President is not up for reelection in 2010, all 435 members of the House and 1/3 of the US Senate have to face an angry electorate in November 2010. Will the blue dog Democrats hunt for Obama-Pelosi-Reed? It doesn’t look like the Democrats have the majority of votes to pass the Health Care bill.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Kudlow on Solving US Debt

Finally the gridlock in Washington is slowing down the Democrat majority and their spend, tax and debt raising ways. The spending binge that Obama and his Democrat “bigger government is better” allies in Congress have been on since January 2009 is beginning to slow, as recent elections (GOP governors in New Jersey and Virginia, plus the upset US Senate race victory in Massachusetts by Scott Brown) have changed the political landscape. The Tea Party Movement, quickly dismissed by the Main Street Media (MSM) and Democratic operatives, is gaining traction, as the American people sense something is very wrong with Washington DC: President Obama is proposing US Government overspending with no end in sight.

Well know supply-sider Lawrence Kudlow makes his case for a make over of the approach the Democrats are taking in Washington: Cut the spending, bring the deficit down to 2% or 3% of the GDP and bring taxes into line with pro-growth policies.

Here's the real problem: The Obama budget would take federal spending as a fraction of the economy to 25 percent, roughly a $1 trillion additional spending increase in the out-years. Publicly held federal debt would climb about $18.5 trillion by 2020, more than double what Obama inherited, rising to almost 80 percent of the economy. (FCM blogger note: Greece is on verge of default with 90% debt to GDP ratio).

Rather than tax hikes, I say stop the spending. Outside of defense and entitlements, why not roll back the discretionary budget to 2008?

Or take a look at Harvard professor Martin Feldstein's idea of putting an end to all the new Obama refundable tax credits, which really are nothing more than new spending and government-transfer programs. Feldstein estimates that putting an end to the new "tax expenditures" could save $1 trillion by 2020.

And I would add in the need for a congressional law that sets strict spending-limit rules based on population and inflation. And how about flat-tax reform -- ending all the unnecessary flotsam-and-jetsam tax credits and subsidies -- to broaden the tax base? Why not slash the top tax rate to 20 percent or less for a true flat tax?

Why not stop the multiple taxes on all forms of saving and investing, including capital gains, dividends and inheritances? And why not eliminate the business tax on profits in favor of a sales tax on net revenues that would deduct all investment expenses? That would leave us with a single-rate consumption-based income tax that would grow this economy by 7 percent to 8 percent in the years ahead, just as the economy should grow after a deep recession.

Going back to the debt-to-GDP ratio, I want to grow the denominator (the economy) and reduce the demand for the numerator (spending and borrowing). That means a combination of supply-side tax cuts and firm spending limits.

And we should add in some monetary reform for a stable King Dollar linked to gold or a commodity basket, along with an expansion of free trade, which itself is a tax cut.

In other words, I'm proposing a growth solution to the debt problem. Lower spending is pro-growth. So are lower tax rates. A program like this could get yearly budget deficits down to a manageable 2 percent to 3 percent in a couple of years. And getting the debt ratio back down to something like 50 percent also would be quite manageable. Lawrence Kudlow, 2.20.2010 in www.rasmussenreports.com

Some quick info, via www.wikipedia.com Just search: Lawrence Kudlow.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Colorado Guv Opts Out

First term Democrat Governor Bill Ritter surprises supports and his Republican challenger Scott McInnis on Wednesday January 6^th with this announcement:

Gov. Bill Ritter announced today he will not seek re-election this November

to a second term.

While many pundits, politicians, opponents and journalists have offers reasons why the Governor is not running in 2010, Governor Bill Ritter’s formal reason (as per his office’s press release) is as follows:

It is my family who has sacrificed the most, my wife, Jeannie, my kids, three of whom are here today. I have not found the proper balance where myfamily is concerned, and I have not made them the priority they should be.So today I'm announcing that I'm ending one of my roles. I am no longer a candidate for re-election this November.

As a recovering elected official on a 12-step plan (who served two 4 year terms on the local Durango City Council), and was involved in a 1998 state of Colorado legislative campaign, I can personally attest to the challenges of balancing political and public service with a normal family life.

However, a number of political factors may have been in play, that weren’t mentioned in the Governor’s official press release and statement to the media. According to the Rasmussen Reports, December 2009 polling data showed that the incumbent Democrat Governor was trailing leading Republican challenger Scott McInnis by 8%. In additon, the GOP candidate McInnis has positive favorable vs. unfavorable ratings and leads by 7% points among the critical unaffiliated Colorado voter.

Like many Democrats nationwide these days, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter who was easily elected in 2006 finds himself trailing his chief Republican opponent in a potential 2010 match-up. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows former GOP Congressman Scott McInnis ahead of Ritter 48% to 40%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Voters not affiliated with either party prefer McInnis to Ritter by a 46% to 39% margin.

Seventeen percent (17%) of Colorado voters have a very favorable view of the current governor, but 27% regard him very unfavorably. McInnis is seen very favorably by 17% and very unfavorably by 12%. http://www.rasmussenreports.com

In addition, Colorado has struggled economically under the Ritter administration, and while the US economy has been weak, the public has not perceived the Democrat Governor as the leader of an economy recovery in the state.

It has been said political considerations supercede all other considerations. In case of Governor Ritter, with re-election prospects slipping and polling number weakening, the political reality overcame the official reasons for not running in 2010.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Federal Deficits Up, State Revenues Down

The U.S. budget deficit for October surged to $176 billion, a record for the month, the Treasury Department announced today.

During the month, the government racked up $311 billion in outlays compared with $135 billion in receipts. (Blogger note: This means the US Gov’t spent 225% of October tax receipts! Clearly a dangerous level of out of control spending.)

The October numbers mark the first month for the new fiscal year after the U.S. wrapped up the 2009 fiscal year that ended on September 30 with a record-high $1.4 trillion budget deficit due to increased government spending to stop the recession and the financial crisis. The final deficit for the 2009 fiscal year was equal to 10 percent of the nation's GDP, the highest shortfall relative to GDP since 1945, the final year of World War II. www.abcnews.com

Meanwhile, according to the Rockefellow Instititute, which has ongoing research on State budgets (by state and region) is reporting record drops in tax revenues, including declines in 49 states. www.rockinst.org

In the RI report of October 15, 2009 (for 2^nd quarter 2009); “Both nominal and inflation adjusted figures indicate that the second quarter of 2009 marked the largest decline in state tax collections at least since 1963. The same is true for combined state and local tax collections, which declined by 12.2 percent in nominal terms.

Second quarter revenues fell by amounts unseen in at least five decades. Total state tax revenue in the second quarter of 2009 declined by 16.6 percent relative to a year ago, before adjustments. The income tax was down by 27.5 percent, the sales tax was down by 9.5 percent, and while the corporate income tax increased by 2.9 percent.

At the same time, in the Rocky Mountain region (Colorado, Idaho, Montana & Utah), personal withholding state tax collections were off 7.3%, while in the Southwest Region (Arizona, NM, Oklahoma) personal withholding declined 10.9%. Estimated state tax payments (2009 vs 2009) for the April to June 2009 period (2nd quarter) were down 44% in Colorado and 44.9% in Arizona. Across the US, state estimated payments (taxes) were down 32.3% (median)” Lucy Dadayan & Don Boyd, www.rockinst.org

States are being forced to cut spending by 5% to 15% (year over year), as they are unable to deficit spend (unlike the undisciplined Federal Government).

According to the recent Rasmussen Reports, the US economy is at the top of the list of Importance of Issues to the American people. Not health care (#3), or the war in Iraq (#8). www.rasmussenreports.com

So what to do next? Work with the US private sector, with the business community and small business to create a better environment for business in the United States. Stop the health care bill, and start over with a bi-partisan approach. Put climate change legislation through an economic impact analysis, before passage of any bill. Cut capital gains taxes for one year (or reduce down to 5% or 10%) and reduce corporate income tax (now the US is the 2^nd highest in the world). Really address unnecessary Federal regulations, mandates and laws that adversely impact small business and tamp down innovation. Finally, the hardest task of all, slash Federal government spending, programs and mandates. Unless the Federal government is put on an austere financial diet, the US risks becoming a third world debtor nation, beholden to Far East (China) and Middle East sovereign wealth funds and unfriendly governments.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Prez Obama Slips in Polls

As fall weather cools, the President continues to see his polling numbers follow the trend toward lower approval and high disapproval by Rasmussen Reports:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. That’s just a point above the lowest level ever recorded for this President. It’s also the sixth straight day in negative double digits, matching the longest such streak www.rasmussenreports.com

Let’s look at the President approval (positive numbers) when he was first sworn into office in January on the 21^st of each month since then. Now the Rasmussen Reports numbers (Approval Index) are negative for President Obama

January 21, 2009 Obama starts at +28

February 21^st Obama is down to +10

March 21^st Obama in single digits at +4

April 21^st Obama just positive at +2

May 21^st Obama climbs to +7

June 21^st Obama slips to negative -2

July 21^st Obama trends down to -5

August 21^st Obama down to -8

Sept 21^st Obama stays at -8

October 21^st Obama into double digits -13

It appears that the PR machine at the White House is failing to prop up support for the President, and instead the WH press office has decided to mount an attack and isolation campaign against Fox News. Perhaps the White House under the Obama administration could change their policies and politics? That is what is the likely cause for President Obama slide into a Jimmy Carter and George Bush type approval index. While Mr. Obama campaigned as a moderate Democrat and one who was bi-partisan, the actual Presidential staff (Axelrod, Emanuel) and Administration is sharply partisan in their Chicago style political operations. And the Presidential approval index reflects the opinion of the American people to that partisan approach.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Legislative Process Light is Creating Heat on Healthcare

As the Health Care bill goes through the legislative process in the US Senate, some very interesting discussions, drama and defining moments have occurred. And things have not gone exactly as the Democrats or Chairman Max Baucus (D-Montana) had planned. [Remember the President’s demand that the Congress have Health Care bill to his desk before the August recess? The subsequent town halls back in the states and Congress districts caused even more reality of citizen concern that the Congress was move way to fast on nationalizing 1/6 of the US economy]. In fact, the debate has become more multifarious by the day, which is the way of the US Senate and the American system of government is designed to work. Despite the desire of the Democrat leadership, you cannot just cram through a massive Health Care bill without due process. This is a republic (at least at this point), not an oligarchy as the Washington elite has hoped for during the attempted Health Care legislative end run around the American people.

Here are excerpts on a recent excellent article, written by Mark Hemmingway in the National Review Online (www.nationalreview.com) from the September 29^th post:

Baucus & Dems are hiding the true cost of Healthcare legislation:

The actual cost of the Baucus bill is $1.7 trillion over ten years, but Democrats prefer to say it will cost $900 billion over the next ten years — this is true, but only because the main spending provisions don’t kick in until 2013. The Democrats also aren’t advertising that the $838 billion in new taxes and fees in the legislation begin being collected next year. Mark Hemingway, NRO, 9.29.09

Even the Congressional Budget Office (the only watchdog at the table, that is somewhat neutral in the process) is doubting how much (more) the bill will cost the US taxpayers:

And then, it will be hard to tell how much the legislation costs; the Senate Finance Committee doesn’t work with the actual legislative language. They work in “conceptual” language or what they call “plain English.” Senator Baucus himself admits, “This probably sounds a little crazy to some people that we are voting on something before we have seen legislative language.” It doesn’t just sound crazy; the CBO says that it is (crazy). Without the actual legislative language, any CBO review of the bill “does not constitute a comprehensive cost estimate” and makes it impossible to get an accurate sense of the cost. When CBO said they would need two weeks to do another formal cost estimate of the amended bill, Baucus balked. Mark Hemingway, NRO, 9.29.09

The Chairman (Baucus) and Congressional Democrats don’t want the public, the press, the healthcare professionals, the medical industry or their colleagues to see the bill over time (just 72 hours in the light of day), because that is too messy, too transparent and will introduce too much accountability. Instead the Democrat led US Senate Finance committee is attempting an efficiency approach. Why take time to get Health Care right, when you can just slide socialized medicine through? Or maybe not.

It's not just the CBO who won't get a chance to look over the bill. Senate Democrats voted down an amendment by Sen. Jim Bunning (R., Kent.) that would have required that, after mark-up, the final language be made available to the public for 72 hours on the Internet. Senator Baucus says he’s against putting the bill online because that, too, would take two weeks. Mark Hemingway, NRO, 9.29.09

Finally, according to a new Rasmussen poll regarding private insurance and the public option http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/october_2009/fear_of_losing_private_health_insurance_trumps_public_option the American people indicates that 63% of the respondents favor keeping their private insurance versus the Democrats “public option” offering. So why are the Congressional Democrats so focused on the public option? Simply put, they are dedicated to a socialized approach to medical care in the United States and the political Democrat elite have decided that our system of private insurance and choice of medical providers is second rate. This in spite of the overwhelming evidence that socialized medicine (when tried in other countries) has resulted in a government run system that rations care, reduces quality and limits choices in medical providers.

With the Congressional majority dedicated overhauling medical care, health insurance and health care in the United States in the socialized image of Europe or Canada, now is the time to contact your Congressman or Senator. Or even run for Congress yourself. Most members of Congress have better health care coverage and options that the rest of the taxpayers. What is wrong with that picture?

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

US Senate Race in Colorado Grows

Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Colorado is a lot more crowded this week, and incumbent Michael Bennet has some serious competition on hand. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters finds Bennet trailing former Republican Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton 45% to 36%. Norton formally announced her candidacy on Tuesday. In that contest, seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. Another newcomer, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, is expected to announce his candidacy today (Wednesday), challenging Bennet for the Democratic Senate nomination next year. In a match-up with Norton, the highest profile Republican in the race so far, Romanoff is down by eight points – 42% to 34%. From Rasmussen Reports, Wednesday September 16, 2009 http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Editor’s note: At the recent Club 20 fall meetings in Grand Junction, www.club20.org the Democratic Governor (Bill Ritter) and appointed US Senator (Michael Bennet) were in attendence, along with a number of other elected and appointed officials. And many announced candidates for Governor, Congress and the US Senate were prowling the halls of the Club 20 meeting (and Friday BBQ) for support, including former Congressman Scott McInnis. www.scottmcinnisforgovernor.com Scott is facing a GOP primary with Colorado State Senator Josh Penry and newcomer Dan Maes www.danmaes.com

© 2009, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media www.jasperwelch.org

Friday, September 11, 2009

Early Polls on Colorado US Senate & Governor Races

Early Polls on Colorado US Senate & Governor Races

Some of the best polling in the US can be found at the Rasmussen Reports web site. Here is the recent September 10^th (2009) release of statewide Colorado 2010 races for US Senate (Dem appointee Bennett as incumbent http://bennet.senate.gov ) and Governor (Bill Ritter facing a strong challenge from former US Congressman Scott McInnis).

“Colorado’s appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennett finds himself in a toss-up with two potential Republican challengers, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Bennett ahead of Buck 43% to 37%. With Frazier as the opponent, Bennet is essentially even. The numbers are 40% for Frazier and 39% for the incumbent.

Any incumbent who polls less than 50% is considered potentially vulnerable.” www.rasmussenreports.com Thurs Sept 10, 2009

Editor’s note: A number of other GOP candidates are running for US Senate, including State Senator Tom Wiens www.tomwiens2010.com In addition, former Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff has announced his challenge to US Senator Bennett. Info on Romanoff at this My Space page: www.myspace.com/romanoffforsenate

“The incumbent Democrat Governor Bill Ritter trounced his Republican opponent to win Colorado’s governorship in 2006, but now in a state that has been trending Democratic and even hosted the party’s national convention last year, the incumbent Democrat may be facing problems in his 2010 reelection bid.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado finds Ritter trailing Republican challenger Scott McInnis by five points – 44% to 39% - in an early look at next year’s race for governor. Ritter’s in a virtual tie with another GOP challenger, state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. Ritter picks up 41% of the vote to Penry’s 40%.”

www.rasmussenreports.com Thursday Sept 10, 2009

What we are seeing in Colorado is shaping up as competitive (both on the Dems and GOP sides) for the US Senate and Governor races in 2010. While Colorado has been historically a center right (or purple state), recent gains by Democrats have place Colorado in the blue state column (with Democrat majority in House, Senator and Governors’ office in Democrat hands). Now that Colorado voters have seen one party rule (from the blue state Democrat way of governing), they are having second thoughts as taxes and fees increase and the Colorado economy struggles.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Saving Money the Congressional Way

As the US Senate wraps up work on their version of the “pork laden” Federal stimulus bill, a group of moderate (aka “big spending”) Republicans and conservative (aka “we spend less than liberals”) Democrats met to recommend cuts on the package. So what does saving money look like in Congress?

US government proposed spending in Federal Stimulus that was partially cut:

• $3.5 billion for energy-efficient federal buildings (original bill $7 billion)

• $75 million from Smithsonian (original bill $150 million)

• $200 million from Environmental Protection Agency Superfund (original bill $800 million)

• $100 million from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (original bill $427 million)

• $100 million from law enforcement wireless (original bill $200 million)

• $300 million from federal fleet of hybrid vehicles (original bill $600 million)

• $100 million from FBI construction (original bill $400 million)

Source: www.americanthinker.com The Mighty Porkulus Oinks Along 2.09.09

For a complete PDF of the Nelson/Collins Stimulus recommendation (that still recommends spending more money than the US house version), go to the Senate Conservative Fund http://senateconservatives.com and click on the Nelson-Collins Stimulus Summary. The amounts of pork spending under the guise of creating jobs and jumpstarting the US economy will overwhelm the average common sense US taxpayer. Or I forgot, less and less Americans actually will pay taxes under the Obama tax plans, so I guess government spending and the resulting taxes don’t impact the average American. We save the tax increases for the rich!

Most Americans just don’t spend money at all, if they are trying to cut costs and save money. As for jumpstarting the economy, a focus on tax cuts for small business, reductions in capital gains tax rates for investors and some actual infrastructure projects would go much farther that the “Porkulus Bill” in term of turning the US economy around. Instead the Democrats in Congress and the new Democrat President are attempting to spend, then borrow, and then increase taxes on the “rich” to pay for their financial boondoggle.

For more on a conservative free market approach and to see a financial reality check, click through the CATO Institute www.cato.org/fiscalreality While the legacy media, main stream Democrats, the left coast and east coast elite are pushing the financially irresponsible Federal Stimulus package, the rest of America is wondering what are these Congressional big spenders are thinking? It is simple: The majority of the Congress and the President think that big government and massive spending is the answer. However a majority of Americans do not support the Democrat Federal stimulus package. Popular support is down at 37% approval, according the Rasmussen Reports www.rasmussenreports.com What will the US taxpayers say to their US Congressmen and US Senators when they get home to defend the Porkulus Package? Time will tell.

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