Final Electoral College Predictions

The Final Electoral College Predictions

Today is the day.    The Legacy Media has moved from a watchdog role in public affairs and elections to an Obama advocacy role.    The Legacy Media has waived off serious questions about the Democrat candidate, and according to the predictors of the US Electoral College, Senator Obama is poised to become President-Elect Obama.  Does the Republican candidate John McCain have a chance to win?  According the pundits, pollsters and Legacy Media it is over.   The left leaning Legacy Media, in their advocacy role, is heading to Grant Park in Chicago for the coronation event for their new leader, Barack Obama.   How far to the left will America go politically?   That will be the big question.   It will remained unanswered until the American people realize that Change We Can Believe In is more of the same liberal tax and spend approach to government.   Is a Harry Truman upset in the works?  It will depend on Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.   However, the odds for a McCain victory are slim at this point.  The pollsters will be left with their final prediction, as the American voters will decide the final outcome.

The Electoral College predictions range from a close Obama victory to a landslide victory.   The overall vote totals ranges from the margin of error (+/- 3%) to a 10% margin for Obama over McCain.  Here is the line up of web sites and their 2008 predictions:

www.zogby.com     Obama=311, McCain=174, Toss-Up=53

www.humanevents.com  Obama=291, McCain=247

www.rove.com   Obama=338, McCain=200

www.realclearpolitics.com   Obama=338, McCain=200

www.electoral-vote.com   Obama=353, McCain=174, Toss=11

www.fivethirtyeight.com   Obama=346.5, McCain=191.5

From the polling research on Election 2008, the Democrat candidate Barack Obama is predicted to win all of the Blue states from 2004 and he is poised to compete in a number of Red states such as Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.

         On the US Senate side of the political races, it is likely that the Republicans may loose six to eight seats to the Democrats.    Now we have 49 Dems, 49 GOP and 2 Independents as members in the US Senate.   At the end of the Election 2008, it is likely to be 56 Dems, 42 GOP and 2 Independents.     However the 2 Independents (Sanders and Lieberman) usually vote with the Democrats.       However, if the GOP does even worse in the US Senate, and Republicans loose their ability to filibuster the Democrat majority, there will be no boundaries for a liberal, left leaning Congress and likely Democrat President. 

© 2008, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org

The Case for John McCain

The Case for John McCain

On February 10, 2007, Obama announced his candidacy for President of the United States in front of the Old State Capitol building in Springfield, Illinois.   Back in 2000, US Senator John McCain ran in the GOP primaries against George W. Bush.  He resumed his quest for the Presidency in 2007.     One could make the argument that both men were running for president well before the 2008 election cycle actually began.

            Now are at the point of final decision.    Many voters in “early voting states” have already cast their ballot for the candidate of their choice.  The undecided voters are still yet to weigh in, along with Democrats, Republican and Unaffiliated voters in 50 states across the United States.    The pundits, polls and conventional wisdom say that Barack Obama has won the election.   In fact, the Obama campaign is building a huge stage and preparing for “world victory party” event in Grant Park in Chicago, Illinois.   But don’t count John McCain out just yet.

            Here is the case for John McCain:  First, he is well versed and experienced in military affairs and foreign policy.   With 22 years of military experience in the US Navy, 6 years of brutal imprisonment in the Hanoi Hilton, and his time of service on the US Senate Armed Services Committee, John McCain has been involved in every major foreign policy and military decision over the past 25 years.    As the Commander in Chief, this hands on experience really matters.    Senator Obama simply lacks the experience, judgment and resolve in military and foreign policy matters.

            Secondly, Senator McCain has demonstrated a conservative perspective in the selection of judges, yet he has maintained a pragmatic approach in the US Senator.   He as worked with Democrat and Republican presidents to confirm the most qualified judicial appointments.    John McCain supported Justices Alito and Roberts.    And he was part of the Gang of 14 that was composed on 7 Democrats and 7 Republican Senators that helped break the partisan logjam that was holding up judicial confirmations.

            Thirdly, John McCain is a maverick.  He has challenged his own Republican party, the President of the United States and the Democrats on the other side of the isle.   He has also worked with members of his party and the opposition Democrats when compromise was necessary to move a difficult issue forward.    Was he always successful?  No, but he did make progress on many issues.   Did McCain challenge the status quo?   Yes, but not without being criticized by his own GOP colleagues and Democrat Senators.  As for Senator Obama, his has a very thin resume of accomplishment in the US Senate.    He has been too busy running for higher office to actually get things done in the US Senate.

            The fourth reason for electing the Maverick from Arizona is that, John McCain has made friends and his share of enemies.   Both friends and enemies respect and know who John McCain is.    Not a perfect person, but an accomplished American.  A man who still goes to the nursing home to visit former Congressman Mo Udall, a fellow Arizonian who reached across the isle to help the younger candidate McCain over 40 years ago.  Senator Obama on the other hand his an interesting web of “friends’, who tend to be on the radical left of the American politic, and when these “friends” are not politically expedient, they are cast aside in favor of Obama’s ambition and looking good.

            The fifth reason is John McCain’s position supporting the culture of life.   From his pro-life record, to his family’s adoption of those less fortunate, Senator McCain has made the case for the human and civil rights of those youngest and least cared for in American.   His answer to Rick Warner’s question about when the human rights begin for an unborn child was straightforward.   In contrast, Barack Obama tried to dodge one of the most critical civil rights question of our day by responding that a clear answer from him was above his pay grade.    Really?

            Finally, John McCain is a reformer and advocate of lower government spending.   He has proposed a spending freeze at the Federal level and he has targeted Congressional earmarks and pork barrel spending.    In the first Presidential debate, Senator Obama couldn’t answer the “what programs or initiatives would you cut or delay?” question from PBS news anchor Jim Lehrer.   Senator Obama has no clear record of reform as an elected official, nor has he stood up to his own party on issues of reform (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Congressional earmarks, unlimited amounts of campaign dollars or government corruption).     John McCain has taken on reform issues from campaign finance, to immigration to the reform of Fannie Mae.    Along with Governor Sarah Palin, a President McCain will reform the broken culture of overspending in Washington.

            The case for John McCain is solid and strong.    While his opponent is well spoken and smooth, he lacks what John McCain has: credible authenticity to be entrusted as the President of the United States.

© 2008, Four Corners Media, Jasper Welch  www.jasperwelch.org

Behind the Curtain? What have they done?

So exactly who are these Presidential candidates?   Are they defined by what they say, how they look, and or what the Main Stream Media (MSM) says about them?    Or should we look behind curtain, behind the debate stage, or actually consider their records?  What have they actually done, versus just what they have said or has been said about them?  Is the essence of the Presidential candidate’s speech more about the speechwriter or about the candidate or the topic of the day?  What does the candidate say “off line”, when they think that the cameras and microphones are off?   How do Presidential candidates respond with they are “off the talking points”?

Quoting from William Kristol, a leading conservative writer for the Weekly Standard www.weeklystandard.com  on the WS web 10/20/08 publication date.  (Oh, by the way, he is a contributor to Fox News [gasp], the “Fair & Balanced” MSM channel and the New York Times [gasp, a liberal rag!]).  Here is what Mr. Kristol wrote in regards to Senator Obama and Senator McCain:

“One is an orthodox and timid liberal, personally ambitious but intellectually conventional. For all his talk of hope and change, when has Barack Obama ever shown a willingness to break with liberal orthodoxy or Democratic dogma? What bold decision has he taken, what unpopular idea has he embraced? The odd truth about Obama is that, for all his unsavory radical associations--and they are unsavory and a legitimate issue in the campaign--he's not radical enough for the times and challenges we face.”

“The other candidate, John McCain, has been all over the map in terms of domestic policies, and has shown a management style during the campaign that makes one worry about the coherence and purposefulness of his administration. But he's shown strong character in his life, and he's done serious things. His general views are centrist, but he's willing to be bold when necessary. He won't be passive as president, and he'll think anew and act anew as he adjusts to the challenges we face, in the spirit of doing what's necessary to preserve and strengthen the underlying principles of American life.”

So why would it matter what a Presidential candidate actually did?   Why not just go for “Change We Can Believe In?”   Or follow after the “Change in Coming” mantra?

In fact, the conventional wisdom appears to say that if the candidate lacks experience, let’s just gloss over that.  It’s all about how I feel.  Right?

            Maybe we should look behind the curtain?  Who somebody is, really does matter.   What the Presidential candidates have done is more important than what they say or what is said about them.  Let’s take the approach that “observed behavior” tells more the next president than “stated promises” made by the Presidential candidate.

            So as we look behind the curtain, we have one candidate with community, legal and political experience, who has written two books about himself, but hasn’t sponsored any significant legislation.  But he is younger man, and he is still gaining experience.  He has never been in business, he has never been in the military, he has never been avid outdoorsman and he has never advocated cutting spending in a meaningful way.  Senator Obama is from Chicago, and has a full history in the Illinois legislature, although not much has been written about it.   (However, a NYM article is worth reading: Goggle “New Yorker Magazine” and search for “Making It” article on Obama).   He has had various friends for political purposes, until it gets too embarrassing for his political career, and then Barack Obama moves on (usually after disowning or disavowing the friend).  Finally, as we lift the curtain, his books, campaign rhetoric and voting record is liberal and orthodox Democrat.  Change we can believe in?   Yes, if a liberal tax and spend approach is what you’d like, then a vote for Barack will get you there in a hurry.

            Then we lift the curtain on the other candidate.    John McCain is an American hero, which makes some people feel uncomfortable, but most Americans appreciate his service to his country.   He has served in the US Navy.   His father, grandfather and his sons have served as well.   While Senator John McCain has served in Washington for 25 years, he has done so as a maverick, angering and challenging parties, their members and their leadership. He actually has led the fight to cut wasteful spending.   Imagine that: Washington living within its means!  John McCain is an older man, a seasoned warrior (literally and politically) from a long career, being involved in most of the major issues that have faced America over the past 25 years.    Is he the best speaker?    Probably not.   Is he a down the party line Republican?   Definitely not.   Does he speak his mind?   Yes, and to a degree his candor is both disarming, yet refreshing in this age of political double speak. 

            So what has Barack Obama done?  A thin resume backed by good books, winsome looks, great campaigning and over $500 million bucks.   So what has John McCain done?  Served his country with dedication, principle and candor over his 72-year lifetime.    He wrote one book, hasn’t run the best campaign, and opted for $84 million in public financing in the General election.

So, it is now up to you as a voter, to decide how experience in your lifetime best prepares you to be the President of the United States.   Oh, I forgot.   The MSM pundits, the pollsters and the Democrats have already decided for you.   Experience doesn’t matter anymore, it is about change.    And courage under fire is old fashioned; now what matters is how good your campaign is.    And the American dream, built on hard work and determination, is really no longer possible, unless the US government intervenes and spreads the wealth around.  So I guess we just close the curtain at the point, and may the best marketing plan (I mean best man) win!

© 2008, Four Corners Media,  Jasper Welch    www.jasperwelch.org             

Style vs. Substance 10.20.08

So how important are style points?  Is the best Presidential candidate the one who is cool?   Does substance matter anymore?  What about the Commander-in-Chief role?   Between the view from the spin room after each Presidential debate and the posturing of the MSM talking heads during the campaign, it is clear that “cool” and “style” matter the most.   Substance?    That is that policy wonk stuff.  It is boring and really doesn’t matter much.   Or does it matter  in the selection of the next President?

As a Harvard educated and emerging member of the elite political class of the America, Senator Obama is well coached and disciplined.     He has the talking points down pat, from the regular Bush bashing to the class warfare rhetoric.    His background as an attorney and professional politician (and some would argue professional candidate) has served him well in this long campaign.   With the full faith of the Main Stream Media (MSM), Barrack Obama is already the President.  The November election is a mere formality. The “One” has mastered the crowds, the campaign dance and it is done. However, the rest of the folks in America still need to cast their vote.  And it is likely that substance will come up in their election decision.

            But can substance carry the day?   Senator McCain, despite a less focused and less disciplined campaign is still hanging around, just over Senator Obama’s shoulder.    The MSM says the “One” has the style, the coolness, the demeanor and temperament to be the President.  Heck, he already is the President in their mind.    But McCain who the MSM has written off several times in this Presidential campaign continues to be within striking distance.    Given the significant media bias, it is pretty amazing the John McCain is in a competitive position here in mid October.

            Maybe Senator McCain is still in this Presidential race because substance and command actually do matter.   In the third debate, the substantive issue of abortion and US Supreme Court nominations came up.   Mr. Smooth attempted to hedge on his intense abortion rights position, but his debate answer clearly communicates his firm position: “With respect to partial-birth abortion, I am completely supportive of a ban on late-term abortions, partial-birth or otherwise, as long as there's an exception for the mother's health and life, and this did not contain that exception.”  Senator Obama, October 15, 2008.   “An exception” for the health and life of the mother?  So if a fully alive child is partially delivered, and the baby is killed by the abortionist, this is okay with Senator Obama if the mother’s health or life is threatened?  This barbaric practice is about the termination of the fully alive child’s life.  The mother’s health is not the substantive issue here, but rather the exception (excuse) to fully trample upon the baby’s human rights.

To this substantive issue, Senator McCain responded: Here is it is “again, the example of the eloquence of Senator Obama.  He's “health” for the mother.  You know, that's been stretched by the pro-abortion movement in America to mean almost anything.

That's the extreme pro-abortion position, quote, "health."  But, look; Cindy and I are adoptive parents.  We know what a treasure and joy it is to have an adopted child in our lives.  We'll do everything we can to improve adoption in this country. But that does not mean that we will cease to protect the rights of the unborn.”   John McCain stood alone for the rights of the unborn, and pointed out the despite his eloquence, Senator Obama’s position is extreme on the substantive issue of abortion.

“Well, you know, I admire so much Senator Obama's eloquence.  And you really have to pay attention to words.  He said, we will look at offshore drilling.  Did you get that?”  John McCain as he pointed out that Senator Obama said he’d ‘look at’ offshore drilling.  As an attorney, with a smooth and eloquent style, the junior Senator from Illinois was able to appear to support offshore drilling without actually drilling for oil offshore.   The substance of the issue:  What policy should American have for energy independence?  Looking at it, or actually drilling for oil?

            Finally, let’s look at the Commander in Chief role.   The Obama campaign chose to criticize Senator McCain because he did use a computer.   The likely reason is that his war related injuries limit his keyboard abilities, but that is beside the Obama campaign point.    The logic of the Democratic campaign argument is that the GOP candidate is “out of touch”.   Or what they really mean to say is that McCain is old and behind the times, as compared the youthful, cool style of Senator Obama.   But the substance question is: Has Senator Obama ever worn a US Military uniform?    Has he ever been a US Military officer?  Is he fully prepared, based on relevant experience, to be the Commander in Chief of the US military forces?   When it comes the to the President of the United States, substance really matters.

© 2008, Four Corners Media, Jasper Welch  www.jasperwelch.org

Mr. Smooth vs. the Maverick: 1st part of Debate #2

Nashville, Tennessee. Tuesday October 7, 2008. A town hall format for the Presidential debate.  NBC’s Tom Brokaw, from the MSM legacy media, is serving as the moderator.  Brian Williams, the new MSM news guy at NBC is still miffed that he wasn’t selected to moderate.  Can’t even get an interview with Sarah Palin.  But we are here for the Presidential debate.

For the Dems, Mr. Smooth, the young politician from south Chicago.    Running an insurgency campaign, following the Independents model created in the University of Chicago, south side elite and African American neighborhoods.    For the GOP, the Maverick from Arizona, the warrior who has been through many tough times, including his present political challenge to catch up with Mr. Smooth.   This is the second time in the boxing ring for both candidates.

            Expectations are high.   Can the Maverick change the debate and get his momentum back?   Can Mr. Smooth satisfy the doubters?  Can he appear Presidential enough to win the election?   Will the format favor the Maverick?

            First question from Allen, what about retirees?  Mr. Smooth says the economic problems are someone else’s fault, which is the “last eight years of Bush”.   The standard line.  Good politics, but not the actual cause of the problem.  Doesn’t matter, Mr. Smooth is trying to get elected.   The Maverick announces a proposed program for the US Treasury to buy up failing mortgages so homeowners can stay in the their houses.   What?    Another multi-hundred billion-government program?  Both agree that Warren Buffet knows more about the economy and investing than either Presidential candidate knows.  Let’s go to the next question.

            Back to THE economy.  Brokaw is trying to stay in charge, but the candidates keep ignoring the lights.   It will be a problem all night: windy answers to questions.   But remember, these guys are running for president, and there are millions of Americans watching.  They need all the time they can get.  Walter has a prepared question:  What can be done to help the average American?  

            The Maverick is ready.  It is a rescue, not a bailout.   I went back to Washington to speak for the taxpayer.   How did we get here?   Problems at Freddie and Fannie.   I stood up to the lax oversight and looming problems.  Mr. Smooth over here, he took a hike.   McCain went after Obama!  New tone in debate.  Will it work?  Is it too late to slow down Mr. Smooth?

            Mr. Smooth responds.  I’ve got to correct the Maverick.   It is the fault of deregulation.   Plus I wrote letters to the Secretary of Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Wrote letters?   Do you sponsor and champion any legislation?  No, Obama sponsored none.  But that critical piece of information is left unsaid by the Smooth One.

            MSM legacy media guy:  Can the economy get much worse?   Good question, given that the stock market has lost 4,000 points (or 25% since the summer).  Mr. Smooth is on a tightrope.   His campaign instinct is to say Yes, but he realizes that he might be elected President and has to actually lead soon.  So the Smooth One said that we need to help people, and then he ran through a couple more prepared lines.  Folks trust Mr. Smooth on the economy?  I’m still trying to figure out why.  Neither candidate has been in business.  They can talk about it (THE economy), but don’t really understand it completely.  Hopefully their advisors will.  

            The Maverick was next on the economy question.   We need to stabilize the mortgage and housing market.  For someone who is not supposed to understand the economy, the former Naval Officer was sounding like he got it.   He mentioned that he and a group of Senators sent a letter on the mortgage issue, but that Mr. Smooth didn’t have his name on it.   Both candidates are getting testy, and the Maverick is getting to Mr. Smooth’s calm demeanor.

            Next question by Teresa:  How can we trust either of you with our money?   Considering the credit and financial crisis, this is an excellent question.

Mr. Smooth tries the emotional connection with an “I feel your pain” approach.  Then he proceeds to blame Bush.  It is his fault.   No one is innocent, (except for Mr. Smooth, but that is beside the point).   So let’s spend (government) money?  Have an energy plan?  Even make spending cuts?   What, actually cut spending?  A Democrat?   But then Mr. Smooth qualifies it: A net spending cut?     So we’ll raise taxes, but cut some spending, and that is a ‘net spending cut’?    A new Washington phrase is added to the liberal tax and spend lexicon.

            The Maverick weighs in.   Washington broken.   But I have been in the Swamp trying to reform the place.   Then he delivers a rehearsed line:  Let’s look at the record and well as our rhetoric.    Check out the third party watchdog groups and you’ll see the difference between Mr. Smooth and me.   Then the Maverick went after Mr. Smooth for spending, raising taxes, earmarks and not challenging the leadership in the Democratic Party.     Mr. Smooth is thinking about what could be the next question.  Can they ask about health care now?

            The MSM legacy media guy changes in the subject.  Mr. Smooth is relieved, as the economy was supposed to be his strong suit.   The question for the MSM news anchor: Health Care, Social Security and Energy Policy.  What are your priorities?  

            The Maverick jumps in.  We need to sit down, with the Democrats and the Republicans and fix these problems.   Back to the citizen questioner,  “Al, all three are important.”  And the GOP Energy policy is “all of the above”.   And get rid of earmarks.   The anti-pork crusader has to get that in.   Not a strong answer, but kept pressing Mr. Smooth on spending.   

            Mr. Smooth uses the bullet point approach.   Good debate skills.  We need to prioritize.   Energy independence is number one.   Health care is #2, and Education is #3.  The smooth one said he’d go through the budget line by line.  Really?  The Federal budget?  A flicker of hope, but it was dashed, as Mr. Smooth had to counter his opponent with some class warfare remarks.   The Smooth One brushed off earmarks.    Just doesn’t want to talk about his $928 million in earmarks for Illinois here, in a debate, with millions watching.

            The MSM legacy media moderator is really getting hot under the collar with the Presidential candidates not following the carefully negotiated rules of debate engagement.   Both candidates comply like a youngster obeys his grandmother.    They are trying, but just can’t stay within the time limits.  Finally the veteran newscaster asked a penetrating question: What sacrifices will you, as President, ask of the American people?    Hmmm.  Both candidates quickly begin to search for the debate prep answers.

            The Maverick is ready.  He understands sacrifice. The question, while economic, is on his turf of service above self.   We need to eliminate some government programs.   (Finally, an answer that is less government, not more!).   He cited examples of taking on Boeing air tanker deal. And said that “all government spending” has be looked at for making cuts.   And he reiterates his proposal for a spending freeze.   Advocates full transparency and eliminating earmarks.   Most ordinary Americans are wondering why it took a financial crises to have Congress operate with some fiscal sense and restraint?

            Mr. Smooth goes back to 911.    I guess that is the only national crisis he has seen in his lifetime. Talked about how the country came together. But then back into Bush bashing.  Mr. Smooth again criticized Bush (his favorite punching bag) about him asking American’s to “go shopping” in response to 911.  I guess this reference by Mr. Smooth was supposed to indicate that this was a “lame thing for a President to do”?   If he were President after 911, he’d advocate pubic service?  Sounds nice, but probably the “go shopping” presidential suggestion was pretty good (though corny) at the time.   Next, Mr. Smooth advocates for energy conservation and the doubling the Peace Corps.   His delivery is very smooth, yet his positions are slippery at the same time.  But what about some specifics and how to sacrifice as individuals?   No matter, if Mr. Smooth said it, it will be just fine.   The MSM will see to that.

            The MSM legacy media guy is staying on the economy:  How to break the American consumer habits of debt and easy money? 

            Mr. Smooth responds that it starts in Washington.  Not just on spending the revenue side as well (read: raise taxes).   Mr. Smooth again brushed aside earmarks, saying they only total $18 Billion dollars a year.   What!  More money than many of the States and their entire annual budgets!    Then the Smooth One goes back to his class warfare arguments, including more taxing of CEO’s.   (There are only 500 of them, and this is the extent of your tax policy?    Just bashing the CEO guy, who may actually be creating jobs and economic growth?  No matter, Mr. Smooth is trying to get elected with smooth rhetoric.   It appears to be working.).  Somehow that helps the poor?    And, he disagrees with the Maverick on a spending freeze.    Big spending tendencies are in Mr. Smooth’s political DNA.

            The Maverick pounces:  “Trying to nail down Senator Obama’s tax policies is like trying to nail Jell-O® to the wall”.   Finally a zinger!  He continues that now is not the time to raise taxes.  Leave the tax rates alone.   We can afford to tax small businesses in an adverse way. 

            Mr. Smooth is squirming.   Just got pounded on his pro-tax, big spending anti-business approach.   He tries to interrupt, but is cautioned by the MSM legacy media guy.

            To be continued…. 

Tie Goes to the Runner

Tie Goes to the Runner   Prez Debate 9.27.08   jazzman3

In baseball, the tie goes to the runner.   At this point, the first one-on-one debate in the 2008 Presidential race, the runner is John McCain and the 1^st baseman is Barack Obama.  Senator McCain is stretching to win the race, while Senator Obama is holding on to stay in the race.  According the left leaning MSM, the script calls for Senator Obama to continue his soaring campaign all the way into the White House.  The Republican nominee, Senator John McCain is not supposed to be this competitive in the Presidential horse race.  Can’t he just fade away like the last Republican war hero, former US Senator Bob Dole?   However, this 2008 Republican nominee is looking presidential and the Democratic candidate is looking for more experience, as reflected in his VP pick of Senator Joe Biden.

In this first debate, both men held their own generally in the debate.  But the real goal is not who won the debate (that the MSM naturally gave to Senator Obama), but which candidate looked presidential and ready to lead the United States of America?   To me Obama knew about the subjects and was well prepared for the debate, but McCain really knows the world and he is well prepared to be President.     This is what will convince the US voter…is this guy ready to be the President?

Based on Senator Obama’s own words, “John you are absolutely right on that”, the junior Senator from Illinois was the follower as he acknowledged the Senator from Arizona articulate his position on the issues.   Byron York noted that Senator Obama make this statement of acknowledgement eight (8) times during the Friday night presidential debate www.nationalreview.com   There was plenty of disagreement during the debate, but it was clear that McCain’s experience, judgment and determination was substantial as compared to Obama’s smooth and well rehearsed subject matter answers.

Both men weighed into the debate with vigor, resolve and determination, as the national stage was set to discuss the issues.     The moderator, PBS newsman Jim Lehrer made the decision to have the presidential candidates respond to each other, in addition to answering the questions.    In a sense the Mr. Lehrer was also a winner in the debate, as his approach kept the topic and responses by the candidates more spontaneous, and less rehearsed.  

Three areas stand out in this debate:  Taxes and spending, the war in Iraq and dealing with the rouge nations of the world.   Moderator Jim Lehrer asked each candidate, based on the potential cost of the financial bail out, what would each man do in response in terms of the Federal budget?   Senator Obama wavered as he realized that with less tax revenues at the Federal level, many of his spending priorities would be in jeopardy.  But where to cut, that was beyond his experience and way of thinking.    Senator McCain on the other hand, weighed right in with suggesting a freeze on US government spending, with exceptions for national defense, veterans and some entitlements. 

Both candidates differ on the war on Iraq.   Barack Obama built his political career and campaign at the national level on an anti-war position, regardless of the consequences or situation on the ground in Iraq.    John McCain, on the other hand, took the approach that while war is something to avoid and only to be engaged in as the last resort, we better get the mission accomplished in Iraq, and leave with victory, honor and dignity.   McCain knew his bracelet, it’s story and the young man’s name whom he committed to his mother that his battlefield sacrifice was not in vain.  Obama quickly responded that he had a bracelet to, but struggled to remember the young man’s name.   He knew the reason he wore it for the soldier’s mom, but in a political way that supports his anti-war position.

Then the question of what to do with Iran came up, and the contrasts of the candidates became even clearer.  Senator Obama wove a delicate set a statements as he backed away from his primary campaign position of “I’ll talk to anyone and anytime, with out preconditions”.   Senator McCain schooled the younger senator in diplomacy 101, making the airtight case for preconditions prior to the US President meeting with any rouge state or enemy head of state.   While Obama was ready for the Presidential debate, McCain came across as ready to be the President of the United States.    He looks like he is now off and running to 2^nd base, the site of the October 7^th Presidential debate.

© 2008, Four Corners Media, Durango, CO  

Presidential Politics 9.26.08

As a recovering elected official, I’ve been watching the Presidential (and other) race(s) closely.  Actually I served as the Mayor of small town in Colorado…kind of like a community organizer, except with some actual responsibility.

Each day, I’ll get my start with Www.realclearpolitics.com and www.townhall.com and www.politico.com, plus the Weekly Standard and National Review on Line.   Various pundits, columnists, polling data and video clips of the day, will get me off to a good start on the daily campaign chatter.

Sarah Palin was a very good pick by Senator McCain, and the liberal media (NYT, big three TV, AP & Time) totally over reacted and blew their “balanced coverage” facade (which was already left leaning, but now the MSM has fallen into leftist hands as their propaganda organs).  Obviously the Main Stream Media (MSM) thought Palin was a good pick (and needed to be defined in their liberal MSM terms).  This viewpoint is based on the MSM atom bomb approach to disable the newly minted conservative VP before she could define herself with US voters.   It is now very clear that the national press (MSM) is in the tank for Obama, and they will trash the GOP ticket at every chance they have (which is now being done on the 24/7 basis).  Some of the unfounded rumors and over reaching media bias towards Gov Palin is ridiculous.... and in my opinion is helping the GOP, because the average person is saying, “Wait a minute, this is an emerging woman leader and Governor isn’t getting a fair shake”.

And the Democratic VP nominee, US Senator Joe Biden, is Mr. Gaffe extraordinaire.   As the golden-tongued senior Senator on the Democratic ticket, he is a sound bite machine, with a disdain for historical accuracy.    Let’s see, FDR as president on TV dealing with the Depression?   President want to be Biden was only a decade and a major technology away from the truth!   More history in the remaking by our US Senator from the teeny tiny state of Delaware. If president-elect Obama was looking for change, Biden’s role in the “Change ticket” is apparently to keeping changing the stories daily. McCain clearly made the better VP choice, and he looked to the future in selecting a proven reformer and Governor with a record on energy, cutting spending and actually leading a state as the chief elected executive.

 Colorado is a battleground state this year, so we are getting pounded by ads, mostly negative and from out of state 527 groups just carpet bombing the state with “over the top” TV and radio ads.  Do the 527’s or campaigns really think that anyone is listening?  Maybe the money could be better spent on helping orphans around the world?

Only 40 days to go, and it is getting interesting.   McCain’s decision to suspend on the campaign Thursday (9/26) and head back to Washington (and try to actually get something done) shows his leadership.  Obama was trying to figure out what to do, but apparently rolling up his sleeves to actually get something done in Wash DC, was taking a back seat to debate prep and press conferences!   Then, when he and the Obama advisors realized that “debate prep in Florida” was not exactly the “Change We can Believe in”, they were relieved that that President Bush gave them a call to head back to Washington for some actual work.   For all the Dems whining about “injecting Presidential politics into the massive bailout debate”, both Obama and McCain are sitting US Senators, and in my opinion, they should weigh into the “massive bailout” debate as the emerging leaders of their respective parties.   The Dem majority and a weakened “lame duck” president need supervision in Washington, prior to screwing up the present financial mess up even worst than it is now!

We’ll see what the big economic summit in Washington DC brings today.