2010 Election Impact on State Legislatures

2010 Election Impact on State Legislatures

From blogging post on The Hill    http://thehill.com/blogs

Republicans took control of at least 19 Democratic-controlled state legislatures Tuesday and gained more than 680 seats, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The last time Republicans saw such victories was in 1994, when they captured control of 20 state legislatures. Republicans haven't controlled as many state legislatures since 1928.  Across the country, the map for state legislatures has turned noticeably red as Republicans now control 55 chambers, with Democrats at 38 and the remaining yet to be decided. At the beginning of this week, Democrats controlled 60 of the country's state legislative chambers and Republicans 36.  

From American Thinker  www.americanthinker.com

Republicans now hold 3,735 state legislative seats to 3,119 state legislative seats held by Democrats, a stunning reversal of power from 2006 and 2008. Republicans have more seats in state legislatures than at any time since Reconstruction. These gains in state legislative seats led to a number of state legislative changes flipping from Democrat to Republican. In those 87 state legislative chambers contested on November 2, Republicans captured control from Democrats in at least nineteen chambers. In stark contrast, Democrats failed to gain a single state legislative chamber from Republicans.

For a map of the State legislatures and shift in balance of power to Republicans (red states), check out the National Conference of State Legislatures.  On their web site http://www.ncsl.org  click on Legislatures & Campaigns & State Vote.

This seismic shift in state legislatures from Democrat control to Republican control is the most significant in the last 70 years.

So how did it go in Colorado and New Mexico?   In New Mexico, under the leadership of House Minority leader Representative Tom Taylor (R-Farmington), the Republicans picked up 8 House seats to gain a total of 33 as compared to 37 Democrats.    Not a majority, but the GOP has a strengthened hand as the minority going forward with the new Republican Governor Susana Martinez.    The NM State Senate is not up for re-election until 2012, when their present 4 year terms expire.

On Colorado, the Republicans picked up enough seats to gain a single seat majority (33 to 32), with the new speaker of the House Frank McNulty (R-Highlands) and a split on the Joint Budget committee (3 Republicans and 3 Democrats) who will preside over recommending $1 Billion in cuts to a $19B budget for FY 2011/12.  The Colorado State Senate has 20 Democrats and 15 Republicans, with Ellen Roberts (R-Durango) being the single GOP pickup.

            Finally the most significant aspect of the shift in the balance of power in state legislatures in that the Republican majorities will oversee redistricting in states based on the 2010 census.    This will give the GOP an advantage at the state level (and presidential level) over the next 10 years.

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org

Election Day 2010

Election Day 2010

In the United States, we still are able to vote on a regular basis as a self governed people.    Today, American across the country will finish voting for candidates seeking to serve the people at the local, state and Federal level.   In most states, early voting is allowed, which means the voting process has been going on for 2 to 3 weeks, with the final window to vote occurring today, Tuesday November 2^nd.

            In Colorado and New Mexico, there are competitive races up and down the ballot.   Some of the more interesting to watch:   The 3 way race for Governor of Colorado has the Democrat Mayor of Denver (Hickenlooper) trying to hold off a surging third party bid by a former Republican Congressman (Tancredo), while a the Republican nominee (newcomer Maes) has sunk to single digits in polling.  In northern New Mexico, a conservative Tea Party Republican (Tom Mullins) is challenging a well known Hispanic family dynasty (Lujan) for the 3^rd Congressional seat.  Scott Tipton is positioned to win his Republican bid for the 3^rd Congressional seat in Colorado, a likely upset win over incumbent Democrat John Salazar.

In Durango, long time conservative rancher JPaul Brown is running a decent campaign against newcomer Democrat and professional environmentalist (O’Donnell) for the 59^th state legislative seat.   And well respected state Representative Ellen Roberts is challenging the appointed state Senate Democrat Bruce Whitehead for the 6^th Senate District in southwestern Colorado.   Other races of note are La Plata County Commissioner, where my friend Bobby Lieb should out distance a Democrat and independent to win a seat on the Commission.  And in San Juan County, NM, the popular Margaret McDaniel is running a strong campaign for County Commissioner in an historically Navajo dominated district.   Her chances are better that 50-50% that she could win over the Democrat.

            The new governor of New Mexico is likely to be Susana  Martinez, a conservative Republican from southern New Mexico, who has run a successful campaign against the NM Democratic machine.    All three Congressional seats in New Mexico are competitive, with Republican pick-ups likely in 2 of the 3 races.

            At the national level,  the voters are fed up with big government, runaway spending and Obamacare.    Essentially, the Congressional races are a referendum on Obama, Pelosi and Ried and their Democrat policies that have not been working.   With the economy stuck in the mud due to poor public and tax policy, the voters are throwing the bums out and giving the Republicans another chance.    But with the volatile political climate of the past several years as a backdrop, whoever is governing better get it right, or they too will be voted out of office next time around.

            So today is your final day to vote.   Make it count!

© 2010, Jasper Welch, Four Corners Media, www.jasperwelch.org   

Ellen Roberts-6th Senate Colorado

The August primary is over, and the winner is Republican candidate Ellen Roberts (R-Durango), who has served as our GOP state Representative for the 59^th District.  We are fortunate to have a strong and experienced candidate like Ellen to running for the 6^th Senate District.    She is facing the “appointed official” Bruce Whitehead, a newcomer to the State Senate, who has not faced an election in his short political career.     While Ellen has successfully prevailed in 3 general elections and one contested Republican primary, Mr. Whitehead is facing the voters for the first time.

Some quick history about the 6^th Senate in Colorado: It is a geographically large and politically diverse.   The seat has been held by Republicans and Democrats.    From Telluride & Silverton (which vote 2 to 1 Democrat) to Montrose, Montezuma and Archuleta County (which vote Republican) and to Durango/La Plata County (which is now voting 60% Dem/40% Rep in 2008), it takes a well-rounded and hard working Republican nominee to win the 6^th District.    In my opinion, with our dedicated help, Ellen can win this race.

Our voter registration for the 6^th District, among “Active” voters:

30,589 Republican            23,124 Unaffiliated  (can’t vote ‘til General)        22,486 Democrat

So we have 77, 877 active voters, but it is likely only about 45,000 (or so) will vote.  In the 2006 Colorado 6th Senate race, about 50,000 people voted.

We’ll see Ellen on the campaign trail as she launches her General election campaign after a successful primary election, in which she prevailed with over 53.4% of votes cast by Republicans.   

Ellen Roberts for State Senate

Ellen Roberts for State Senate

Campaign season is in full swing in Colorado.   On Saturday April 17th

Good morning Republicans!  I’m Jasper Welch, a delegate from La Plata County.    This morning I’m honored to place in nomination my friend & fellow Republican Ellen Roberts for the 6^th Senate District.    In my 30 years of civic involvement, we have the opportunity to nominate the best-prepared candidate for state Senate.

Ellen is experienced, independent and she has the right temperament to be our next state Senator.    Simply put:  She is the right person for the job… and here’s why:

Ellen has the experience….

… in construction…health services…a successful law practice and her community involvement, Ellen knows the District, the people and the issues we face in Colorado.     We know her…and she knows us.    No need for on the job training, but rather she is well prepared to represent us.  Ellen understands southwestern Colorado…she is one of us.

Ellen has the electability…

…as our 59^th House representative, Ellen has met the challenge of a Colorado legislative campaign.   Her Democrat opponent has been a government employee that was appointed as a placeholder in the State Senate seat.  That won’t last.  Ellen knows that an appointed Democrat must stand for his first election.  She is ready and willing to campaign.  And with your help, and the help of voters throughout the 6^th District, she’ll be our next elected (not appointed) State Senator.

Ellen is an independent thinker….

She really listens to all sides of the issues, and as a Republican, she knows how we approach the issues.  From my experience, she is independently mined, and doesn’t fit the mold and I admire that.    So the question is not, is she “conservative” or “moderate” or “whatever” enough.   But rather, does our Republican nominee have the independent judgment and understanding of limited government and fiscal responsibility to be a leader in the state Senate?   Ellen wants to know what you think and how best to represent your diverse interests at the state Capital.

Ellen has the unique ability to really listen, to really do her homework, and fight for our Republican principles.  It takes sound judgment and a steady temperament to be a state Senator.     I have personally known and worked with former Republican Senators Dan Noble and Bob DeNier.  We miss them.  They served southwestern Colorado well.   As fellow Coloradans, they had the experience, the electability, the independence and the temperament to serve.   I believe that Ellen will follow in their footsteps.

In remarks to delegates to  a Republican assembly in 1982, Ronald Reagan said:  “When the chips are down and the decisions are made as to who the candidates will be, then the 11th commandment prevails and everybody goes to work. His guidance?  Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.”   

In the heat of party politics and nomination assemblies, with e-mails and political labels flying around, it is easy to lose site of the real goal: that is sending the appointed Democrat Senate back home, and electing a Republican to the 6^th Senate seat.   It is with these things in mind, that I proudly place the name of Ellen Roberts in nomination.

Jasper Welch, delegate from La Plata County, Colorado 4.17.10